PCAPS has an overarching project goal as well as five main objectives. These objectives are aligned with the five main project outcomes, and their associated sub-outcomes. The achievement of the intended outcomes will lead to the intended long-term impact of PCAPS.

Explore the table below to learn more about the various aspects of PCAPS. The table can also be downloaded as a pdf here!

Goal:

PCAPS aims at improving the actionability, impact, and fidelity of environmental forecasting for human and environmental well-being in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

  • Enhance environmental services

  • Guidelines and resources for planning and conducting polar activities

    Information on weather impacts, use and decision-making contexts to guide forecasters and environmental service providers

    Effectively communicated and usable forecasts for diverse stakeholders

    Peer-reviewed publications

    Sophisticated social-science research agenda (Horizon Scan)

    An up-to-date database of environmental services for the Polar Regions

    Training modules/programmes

    Regular user evaluation of products/services

    Peer-reviewed publications

    An up-to-date glossary of key terms in relation to environmental services (living document)

    Training modules/programmes

  • Understand the socio-psychological factors influencing decision-making. Engage service providers and users via dedicated interactive and reporting networks. Identify users’ perception of service value and reliability.

  • Enable informed decision-making to enhance human safety and mitigate environmental risk

  • Consolidated database and review of incidents

    Analysis of search-and-rescue (SAR) and insurance statistics

    Review of strategic plans of organisations offering environmental services and service investment

    Regular user evaluation of services

    Analyses of services provided and their use across different providers

    Assessment of levels of collaborative service provision

    Regular provider self-evaluations

    Peer-reviewed publications

    Impact assessments

    Collaborative activities with partners to increase knowledge of environmental services and polar hazards, improve training and raise levels of service uptake

    Knowledge about the relationship between improved service provision and the evolution of human activities

    Socio-economic analyses

    Consolidated database and review of incidents

    Regular user evaluation of access and perceived fairness of service provision.

    Recommendations for updates to policies such as the Polar Code and update of Standard Operating Procedures in the polar regions

    Survey/expert elicitations, or document analyses, to assess the awareness of the impact of institutional requirements/settings on the delivery of services

  • Understand societal and economic impacts of delivery and use and implications for governance.

  • Provide more accurate and reliable analyses and predictions.

  • Documented improved uptake and more developed usage of existing observation systems

    Guidance on how to implement coupled data assimilation for components such as waves, sea ice, snow, ocean, and atmosphere

    Recommendations for improvements of the sustained polar observing system to support forecasts

    Increased submission of field campaign data in real-time for forecasting (WIS/GTS)

    Articulated benefits of new observational platforms and sensors, addressing specific gaps, e.g. in observations of vertical structure

    Improved data availability for research on forecasting and of observational data following FAIR principles and WMO data policy

    Broadened uptake of the Merged Observatory/Model Data Files (MODFs and MMDFs)

    Model Intercomparison and Improvement Projects (MIIPs) for improved understanding of key physical processes and their representation in models

    Studies of the practical predictability limits across different spatial and temporal scales and user-relevant parameters

    Enhanced development of high-resolution coupled models and forecasts, including vertical resolution, to adequately capture small-scale dynamics and variability

    Co-developed user-focused verification of key variables

    Regular discussions of recent verification results for the Antarctic and Arctic regions from forecasting centres including contribution from WMO lead centre for deterministic verification

    Protocol for sea-ice verification including finding baseline products to verify against and including their uncertainties

    Diagnostics and verification methods for capturing the added value of increased resolution in representing extremes and complex features in polar environments

    Process-diagnostics to assess physical variable interactions and the coupling between the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere to aid model development (e.g. YOPPsiteMIP)

    Recommendations on sustained site observatories that provide near-real time data for multivariate process-oriented diagnostics

  • Develop and employ advanced modelling techniques: Improve high-resolution models. Strengthen the observing system for better validation and monitoring. Advance coupled models, implementing strategies for improved modelling of physical processes. Explore predictability limits.

  • Strengthen partnerships through transdisciplinary coordination and cooperation.

  • Establish collaborative projects and partnerships with diverse stakeholders aimed at addressing targeted challenges and innovations across the value chain to reach the PCAPS objectives, SERVICES and PREDICT

    Implement strategies to integrate identified best practices into the environmental services workflow, to help transition research outputs into practical applications

    Collate and disseminate good practices and services of successful collaborative projects, promoting knowledge sharing and replication

    Develop and maintain regular communication channels, including newsletters and dedicated online platforms, to facilitate transparent and effective communication among interested parties

  • Stakeholder and partner networks have been established, along with regular communication and feedback processes.

  • Facilitate inclusivity and capacity development.

  • Development of guidelines that ensure all activities related to PCAPS’ objectives – PREDICT, SERVICES, SUSTAINABILITY, and PARTNERSHIPS – consider inclusivity and capacity development across a variety of stakeholders and sectors

    Creation of training programs focused on exploring informed decisionmaking using WWIC services, emphasizing empowerment, equity, and socioeconomic factors

    Establishment of mentorship programs prioritizing the involvement, training, and contributions of early-career researchers and under­represented groups in polar service activities

    Implementation of interdisciplinary training and professional development initiatives targeting early-career physical and social science professionals and representatives from key user groups, to foster inclusivity and capacity building

    Organization of workshops and seminars providing opportunities to share, learn, and respect diverse knowledge systems, practices, disciplines, and terminologies among stakeholders

  • A thriving community of early-career and established researchers and professionals working in the field of polar prediction and services.

Impact:

Improved ACTIONABILITY, IMPACT, and FIDELITY of environmental forecasting for human and environmental well-being in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, all the while increasing PARTNERSHIPS and INCLUSIVITY.