We aim to promote research enabling improved prediction services for the polar regions.
PCAPS (Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services), a project of WMO's World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), builds upon and extends the work undertaken by the former WWRP's Polar Prediction Project and its flagship activity, the Year of Polar Prediction.
Goals
PCAPS aims at improving the actionability, impact, and fidelity of environmental forecasting for human and environmental well-being in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
The PCAPS project will undertake research that leads to improved service provision for vulnerable communities and those operating in the fast-changing polar regions.
The research activities will focus on improving coupled weather and climate forecasting models, as well as on increasing the understanding of user requirements (user groups, products, timeliness, access, and scale) through trialling co-production mechanisms and communication.
It is anticipated that the WMO contribution to the fifth International Polar Year (IPY) (2032-2033) will be informed and assisted by the outcomes from PCAPS.
The PCAPS goal and outcomes support WMO’s Research Strategic Objectives:
3.1: Advance scientific knowledge of the Earth system
3.2: Enhance the science-for-service value chain (or value cycle) to ensure that scientific and technological advances improve predictive capabilities and analysis
3.3: Advance and contribute to policy-relevant science
PCAPS has an overarching project goal as well as five main objectives. These objectives are aligned with the five main project outcomes, and their associated sub-outcomes. The achievement of the intended outcomes will lead to the intended long-term impact of PCAPS.
Areas of interest
-
Engage a variety of user groups in undertaking assessments of environmental forecasting services, recognizing different user needs and different services at different spatial and temporal scales.
-
Explore and assess the consequences – intended and unintended – of the provision and use of enhanced environmental services on human activities in the polar regions.
-
Advocate for enhancing the observing system, particularly via advancing coupled atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean Earth System Models to accurately represent critical polar phenomena.
-
Identify and select partners for collaborative projects, which target specific challenges or innovations, including but not limited to:
Improving the interpretability/usability of forecasting services.
Exploring the possibilities and implications of employing artificial intelligence and machine-learning across the value chain.
-
Provide interdisciplinary training, networking, and professional development, with an emphasis on early-career professionals as well as underrepresented groups.
Background
The polar regions are directly impacted by climate change, necessitating the provision of the best-possible user-informed, research-driven environmental forecast and reanalysis services to address the current, near-, and long-term risk picture.
PCAPS, spanning 2024-2028 under the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), is dedicated to enhancing environmental forecasting in the Arctic and Antarctic regions for human and environmental well-being.
As the effects of climate change intensify, polar regions are experiencing rapid transformations, impacting their complex socio-ecological systems. With rapid environmental change in these regions, a pressing need for improving the actionability, impact, and fidelity, of weather forecasting in the polar regions is rooted in the unique challenges posed by these extreme environments.
PCAPS recognizes the complexity of interactions in polar socio-ecological systems and aims to enhance environmental forecasting services with diverse user contexts in mind by facilitating the provision of more accurate, reliable, and usable prediction services.
Guided by user needs and service provision capabilities, PCAPS involves work to improve models, particularly in predicting small-scale processes essential for accurate forecasts in the context of improving the overall service provision. Key parameters include surface wind speed, swell characteristics, cloud conditions, precipitation, visibility, and sea-ice features.
PCAPS will assess the need for a tiered surface observing network to address gaps in polar observations, utilizing ground-based remote sensing, robotic crafts, and permanent observatories to enhance satellite data, with a focus on validating critical products and conducting a cost-benefit analysis for sustainable polar observation.
Increased cooperation and coordination between user communities, operational centres and researchers will ensure that environmental forecasting services are fit for purpose.
Such inter- and transdisciplinary collaborative efforts are required to achieve the priority of understanding operational decision-making and user needs to enhance service provision and thereby facilitate human and environmental health in the polar regions.
PCAPS endeavors to integrate contributions from the social and physical sciences as well as the service provider and user communities throughout its entire project lifetime.
While physical scientists will work on improving the understanding and representation of stable atmospheric boundary layers, mixed-phase clouds, and wave–ice–ocean interactions, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the coupled nature of the dynamic and thermodynamic interactions across these boundaries, this research will be guided and informed by social scientists whose research explores decision-making, risk perception and interaction with environmental forecasting specialists as well as by service providers and users, including Indigenous communities.
In sum, PCAPS aims to facilitate the exchange of knowledge at the science-policy-service-user interface to improve the actionability, impact, and fidelity of environmental forecasting services.
PPP and YOPP
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Final Summit was the final milestone in WWRP’s Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP was PPP’s flagship activity and a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user engagement and education activities from mid-2017 to mid-2019.
YOPP successfully united scientists, practitioners, and stakeholders, enhancing observational capabilities and user engagement.
This collaboration yielded numerous scientific publications, improved model predictions, and a deeper understanding of polar-midlatitude interactions, highlighting YOPP's comprehensive impact from fostering community to advancing operational forecasting.
YOPP has contributed to better coupling in Earth system models and addressed unresolved polar processes through tailored observation campaigns. Additionally, there are improved sea-ice forecasting techniques, innovative evaluation frameworks, and a deeper understanding of societal needs in polar regions.
The YOPP Final Summit sessions and stakeholder discussions enriched our understanding of YOPP's societal impact and provided valuable input for future directions. The YOPP Final Summit highlighted several key research priorities in the realm of environmental prediction and services for the polar regions.
The complexity and infancy of polar-coupled prediction systems introduce challenges. Ensuring that these systems are fit-for-predictions demands careful consideration, including addressing limitations, refining models, and adapting to the unique characteristics of polar environments. Addressing biases in reanalyses—comprehensive reconstructions of past weather and climate conditions—is crucial for advancing climate science and ensuring informed decision-making to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. Ensuring that historical data accurately represents polar conditions is challenging due to sparse observational networks, uneven data distribution, and limitations in assimilating information into models.
The YOPP Final Summit acknowledged the progress made in identifying key user groups and their needs but called for increased efforts to expand natural and societal research and tailor services to a broader spectrum of users.
Endorsed projects
PCAPS welcomes collaboration with institutions and individuals working on matters associated with environmental services in polar regions.
One of the ways for establishing these collaborations is via WWRP's endorsement of projects, events, and initiatives. WWRP's Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) can provide endorsements, provided that the projects align with WWRP objectives.
The guidelines for WWRP endorsements and partner projects outline the process for seeking endorsement or approval for projects, events, or proposals by the WWRP.
Endorsement by the SSC is provided for projects that align with WWRP objectives, offering benefits such as international visibility and networking opportunities. The availability of research data relevant to the WWRP and agreement to make such data available in accordance with the WMO data-sharing policy are also prerequisites for endorsement. Partner projects, which require long-term independent funding and international collaboration, undergo approval by the SSC and involve closer relationships with WWRP.
Requests for endorsement or approval must be submitted via an online form on the WWRP Community website, with outcomes communicated within specified timeframes.
Endorsement benefits proposers by providing international recognition, facilitating research activities, and enhancing visibility.
Endorsed projects, in turn, advance WWRP goals by boosting research capacity, sharing achievements, and amplifying outreach efforts, while also contributing valuable expertise to the program.
Banner image by Ramcharan Vijayaraghavan.