New policy brief on key challenges in providing forecast uncertainty information to Arctic maritime operators
Addressing the rising maritime risks in the Arctic, the FOCUS project - gathering a consortium of natural and social sciences, public weather services, and an e-navigation company - shares its key findings concerning the communication of forecast uncertainties. The FOCUS project was led by Dr. Malte Müller of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), and included Dr. Jelmer Jeuring (MET Norway) and Dr. Machiel Lamers (Wageningen University & Research) - two members of the PCAPS steering group.
The FOCUS project group, from left to right: Jannikke Berger (NAVTOR), Laurent Bertino (NERSC), Machiel Lamers (Wageningen University), Malte Müller, Jelmer Jeuring, Eirik Samuelsen (MET Norway), Jeanneth Nodland (NAVTOR).
Not pictured: Bjørn Åge Hjøllo (NAVTOR), Berill Blair (Wageningen University), Hans Burchard (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research), Jiping Xie and Yue Ying (NERSC), Yurii Batrak, Tor Skaslien, and Berit Hagen (MET Norway). Photo credits: NAVTOR.
The Arctic environment is known for its extreme and dynamic weather and sea ice conditions. Hence, the sustainable development of Arctic navigation is critically dependent on information maritime operators receive on weather and sea-ice hazards.
FOCUS has been a 4-year project (2020-2024), funded by the Norwegian Research Council, with the main objective of integrating advanced uncertainty information into maritime operations. The FOCUS policy brief is the project’s final deliverable summarizing its key findings and recommendations.
The policy brief, a 2-page document, nicely enhanced with graphics by Frida Cnossen (Akvaplan-niva), is publicly available here.
A visualization of the spray icing effect (bottom of figure) and of how forecast uncertainty for spray icing severity thresholds (top of figure) increases with longer lead times. Illustration: Frida Cnossen
Weather and sea ice forecasting comes with inherent uncertainties which, if not communicated effectively, can potentially result in misjudgments and mistrust among maritime operators. The policy brief underscores this gap, advocating for enhanced collaboration among scientists, service providers, and maritime personnel to bridge research and real-world navigation challenges.
FOCUS’s central work underscored the intricate challenge of presenting complex forecast data in user-friendly formats. For example, insights from decision scenario exercises used during a FOCUS stakeholder workshop highlighted that the incorporation of intuitive visuals like traffic light color schemes can enhance comprehension and application of predictive models by end-users.
Visualization of probabilistic spray icing forecast and an imaginary voyage track, used to explore decision making in a FOCUS stakeholder workshop. Figure from: Jeuring et al. 2024.
This user-oriented approach aligns with PCAPS' mission of promoting accessible, reliable data for Arctic stakeholders. Moreover, the partnership with NAVTOR is set to provide an important step forward for e-navigation systems with integrated ensemble predictions, paving the way for a new era of informed and safe maritime operations in the Arctic.