Advancing coupled Arctic forecasting: Insights from the Workshop on Coupled Modelling and Observations in the Marginal Ice Zone
The Workshop on Coupled Modelling and Observations in the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) took place from 10–12 February, 2025 in Oslo, Norway, funded by the Norwegian Research Council and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. This workshop is part of the WWRP-PCAPS endorsed SvalMIZ project, whose main objective is to enhance observations and modeling in the Arctic. It brought together approximately 45 researchers from various disciplines related to the forecasting of weather, sea ice, and wave dynamics in the Arctic to discuss challenges and advancements in coupled forecasting systems. The workshop built upon the Svalbard Marginal Ice Zone 2024 (SvalMIZ-24) campaign, which deployed 34 OpenMetBuoys north of Svalbard to collect crucial in-situ data. A key aspect of this campaign was to provide a distributed network of observations to allow for a representative comparison with model output.
Coupled Modelling and Observations in the Marginal Ice Zone workshop participants. Photo courtesy of Dina Abdel-Fattah.
The SvalMIZ-24 campaign provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the coupled atmosphere, wave, and sea ice system in the Marginal Ice Zone. Forecast data from more than 20 model system setups, both operational and experimental, are included in an inter-comparison study.
The first part of the workshop was dedicated to presentations by ECMWF, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the German Weather Service, Météo-France, the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, providing an overview of the suite of models used.
Observations of 1-meter temperature over sea ice during the SvalMIZ-24 campaign.
The presentations and breakout groups that followed these initial sessions focused on key questions:
How can the complex interactions in the MIZ be evaluated using in-situ data?
What are the greatest challenges in advancing coupled MIZ forecasting?
Which model parameters and physical processes require improved representation?
How can observational data best support model development and validation?
A particularly engaging segment was the integration of AI-driven forecasting systems, with presentations showcasing how machine learning and hybrid modelling are being leveraged for Arctic predictions.
The workshop's final day included scientific presentations on the latest research on the MIZ, including modeling and observational studies ranging from weather to climate timescales. The focus then shifted to future research and collaboration opportunities, highlighting PCAPS, IPY, and the need for efficient data sharing for the upcoming Arctic field campaigns in 2025 and beyond. These discussions underscored how improved coordination and data-sharing efforts directly support PCAPS goals by enhancing predictive capabilities in the Arctic. The collaborative spirit of the workshop also demonstrated the critical role of partnerships in advancing Arctic forecasting, ensuring that both research and operational needs are met more effectively.
The workshop concluded with a plan for enhanced future collaborations, including coordinated sensitivity experiments, integration of remote sensing data, and the development of advanced evaluation techniques. These efforts aim to ensure that observations and modeling efforts continue to inform and refine Arctic forecasting capabilities.
It is planned that a summary of the workshop will soon be published in BAMS.