Reflections from AGU24 - The importance of communicating scientific uncertainty for cryospheric hazards

2024 was a record year for drastic changes in the cryosphere. Several reports were released in late 2024, in anticipation of the 2025 International Year’s of Glaciers’ Preservation, documenting the mounting concern over the state of the cryosphere. Against this backdrop, the annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2024 Fall Meeting took place in Washington DC from 9 to 13 December 2024, with many sessions focused on improving our monitoring of, as well as our response to, rapid changes in the cryosphere. There, Dina Abdel-Fattah, Manager of the PCAPS International Coordination Office, presented her work on the glacial lake outburst floods in Juneau, Alaska, in collaboration with partners from the University of Alaska Southeast and the National Weather Service in Juneau. Malte Müller, leader of the WWRP/PCAPS endorsed project on the Svalbard Marginal Ice Zone campaign, also presented on the project at AGU.

Image of the AGU24 Fall Meeting venue (Walter E. Washington Convention Center) in Washington DC. Photo credit: Dina Abdel-Fattah

From the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) bulletin (The Cryosphere – the Canary in the Coal Mine of the Climate System), to the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s (ICCI) State of the Cryosphere 2024 Lost Ice, Global Damage, to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Arctic Report Card 2024, the message is clear that the cryosphere is undergoing extreme, rapid, and irreversible changes, resulting in drastic and dramatic impacts globally.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a natural phenomenon that can have severe consequences for downstream communities. Thinning glaciers and rapid glacial melt contribute to the susceptibility of GLOFs and are but a few factors of why we expect to see increased GLOFs in the years to come around the world, increasing the need for improved and novel monitoring and observing systems. PCAPS works towards improved actionability, impact, and fidelity of environmental forecasting for human and environmental well-being in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

Dina presented at the Communicating Cryosphere Change for Planning and Decision-Making session, primarily convened by Emilio Ian Mateo from the Aspen Global Change Institute.

She discussed in particular the challenges in understanding and modelling dynamic changes in the cryosphere, particularly when they hold implications for residents and other groups who are impacted by the hazards arising from these changes. Notably, affected citizens, businesses, and decision-makers need to understand evolving cryospheric hazards across annual to decadal time scales, which can conflict with the spatial and temporal scales and resolutions of current cryospheric modelling approaches. Thus, there is an increasing need for cryospheric scientists to not only effectively relay their models’ abilities, strengths, and limitations, but also, to help provide usable information and products that meet decision-making needs for a variety of different perspectives. 

Juneau, Alaska provides a unique perspective, since it has been experiencing GLOFs on an annual basis since 2011. There, scientists, public agencies, and other local, public, and private actors have been working together to support community needs to prepare and respond to the yearly floods, as well as advance the scientific understanding behind the floods, in order to more accurately model their future evolution.

These lessons learned and important reflections from the Juneau community, especially after the devastating 2023 glacial lake outburst flood, have helped to identify critical areas for future research and collaboration that extend well beyond Juneau and hold relevancy in other communities impacted by cryospheric hazards.

At AGU24. From left to right, Eran Hood, Dina Abdel-Fattah, and Aaron Jacobs. Photo courtesy of Eran Hood.

Importantly, this work reflects an ongoing multi-organisational, multi-year collaboration. Co-authors, Eran Hood from the University of Alaska Southeast as well as Aaron Jacobs from the National Weather Service - Juneau Forecast Office, were also present at the session, helping to describe the situation and answering questions about what lies ahead.

A copy of the interactive poster presentation can be found here.

In addition, Malte Müller from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the leader of the WWRP/PCAPS endorsed project on the Svalbard Marginal Ice Zone Campaign presented on the project’s work in a session titled: The Svalbard Marginal Ice Zone Campaign 2024 - a distributed network of wave, sea-ice drift, and temperature observations.

2025 marks the United Nations International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation, the implementation of which will be facilitated by WMO and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). We encourage all those interested and working on topics related to glaciers to follow the upcoming discussions in 2025 on the future of the cryosphere.