PCAPS reflections from COP29, Baku, Azerbaijan
PCAPS Steering Group member, Clare Eayrs, and PCAPS ICO manager, Dina Abdel-Fattah, attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Dina presented at two sessions - one on cryospheric hazards at the Cryosphere Pavilion and one on the use of AI in the WMO Early Warnings for All initiative. PCAPS presence at COP29 helped reinforce the need for closer collaboration between weather and climate research, and the use of novel technology to help support advances to improve global safety, wellbeing, and resilience.
Dina presenting at the Cryosphere Pavilion at COP29. Photo credits: Clare Eayrs.
Dina held a side event at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s Cryosphere Pavilion, From Devastation to Adaptation: The Community Impacts and Costs of Cryospheric Hazards Around the World. The interdisciplinary event featured presentations on the future of cryospheric hazards - from glacial lake outburst floods, to sea ice hazards, to permafrost thaw - across the world, with specific case studies from Alaska and the Andes, highlighting opportunities and challenges in developing appropriate adaptation measures under climate change. The event was also livestreamed and recorded.
The cryospheric discussions at the Cryosphere Pavilion as well as at COP29 more broadly reinforced the critical importance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while emphasising that every fraction of a degree matters in terms of climate impacts on the cryosphere. Thresholds are critical when it comes to melting ice!
This further highlights the importance of bridging our understandings of weather and climate, namely bridging the gap between short-term variability and long-term trends. Climate change, in particular, is rapidly changing the baseline for environmental forecasting, which has direct implications for providing accurate and reliable short-term and long-term forecasts.
A key focus emerged around the crucial role of Antarctic and Southern Ocean observations, a region that remains one of the least observed on the planet as its remote location, harsh environment, and vast size make traditional observations expensive and logistically challenging. While remote sensing capabilities are advancing rapidly, significant challenges remain in obtaining comprehensive, continuous datasets. Critical gaps remain in sub-surface environments, especially under-ice environments where satellites cannot penetrate.
These challenges are further compounded by global disparities in scientific capacity and resources, particularly between Global North and South nations. In situ observations in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are often collected on a project basis rather than as sustained measurements, which is what we need for reliable forecasts. Research priorities and data collection are often skewed toward Global North perspectives. This is not just about fairness. It is about ensuring we have the most complete and accurate understanding of global climate systems possible, which is essential for effective climate action worldwide.
The strength of coordinated observational efforts lies not in isolated measurements but in the systematic connection of observations following standardized protocols across different disciplines, regions and seasons. To maximise opportunities to make observations, it will be helpful to define a set of observations with automated routines that have a low impact on ship time and staff resources. While one-off field campaigns provide essential process understanding, the pressing need for long-term sustained monitoring to track and understand change requires innovative solutions. Given the logistical constraints of limited icebreaker availability, autonomous systems are needed, complemented by ship-based automated routines and standardised measurements.
AI for UN Early Warnings for All (EW4All) Initiative panel debate at COP29. Photo credits: Clare Eayrs.
The role and use of AI in weather and climate modeling was another topic of focus at COP29. Dina presented in a panel debate at the Bulgaria Pavilion, hosted by the International Telecommunication Union, on AI for UN Early Warnings for All (EW4All) Initiative. Here, the discussion of public-private partnerships was emphasised, particularly in light of the fast-approaching deadline to establish early warning systems worldwide by 2027.
AI offers transformative potential for weather and climate modelling through faster execution times and enhanced interpretation of vast datasets at unprecedented scale and speed. These advances enable more proactive disaster management through improved early warning systems for natural disasters. The polar regions in particular - as well as the broader cryosphere - are but one area that could benefit from AI-based environmental forecasting, due to the aforementioned challenges and constraints. AI can help maximise the value of existing datasets through improved interpretation of vast amounts of data, enhanced forecast capabilities, and by helping identify optimal locations for new observations where they would provide the greatest benefit.
Upcoming international initiatives hope to address these data issues - Antarctica InSync and the International Polar Year to name a few. Meanwhile, rapid developments in AI and machine learning applications hold much promise to revolutionize the way we think and work.
PCAPS is a champion for both increased polar collaboration and the use of novel technologies to support a better understanding of our polar regions. The WWRP / PCAPS team welcomes applications for endorsed projects, as well as opportunities for collaboration.
Clare Eayrs attendance was supported by Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion (KIMST) funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (RS-2023-00256677; PM23020) and badge provided by the Korean Government.
Thumbnail photo information: From left to right, photo of Clare and Dina at the Cryosphere Pavilion at COP 29. Photo courtesy of Dina Abdel-Fattah