Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) synthesis paper published
In February 2025, the final synthesis paper from the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was published, showcasing the breakthroughs made possible by the World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project (PPP). Launched in response to an urgent need for better polar forecasts, PPP/YOPP revolutionized environmental prediction in these remote and sensitive regions, improving forecasting systems used worldwide and changing how we understand polar-mid-latitude interactions. PPP/YOPP laid the strong foundation that PCAPS builds upon, helping to further improved environmental forecasting and well-being in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
The final annual PPP-SG meeting in Bremerhaven, Germany, February 2020. Photo credit: Sara Pasqualetto.
From uncertainty to unprecedented insights
In the late 2000s, polar prediction was barely on the radar. Environmental forecasting models struggled to provide reliable information for the Arctic and Antarctic regions. At the time, the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness was just beginning to capture scientific attention, but the tools to understand or predict these changes were rudimentary at best. Accurate weather and climate predictions in polar regions were considered nearly impossible, leaving communities, industries, and policymakers ill-prepared for the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, within just over a decade, the landscape of polar prediction has been transformed.
This shift, however, did not happen overnight. It required a decade-long concerted effort in observation, modelling, verification, user engagement, and education. The question is, how did PPP/YOPP achieve such a transformation? And what does it mean for the work that PCAPS is involved in and the future of polar prediction, as we face an accelerating climate crisis?
A decade of polar prediction
PPP ran from 2013 to the end of 2022, with YOPP spanning from mid-2017 to 2023. The slight extension was due to COVID-19-related delays in field programs.
From the outset, PPP/YOPP set out to bridge critical knowledge gaps and improve environmental forecasts for polar regions—a challenge that, until then, had been largely overlooked.
At its core, PPP/YOPP aimed to address the dramatic changes observed in the polar regions, such as the rapid reduction of sea ice cover and thickness in the Arctic, and the far-reaching consequences of these changes on global weather and climate systems. Through a strategic focus on enhanced observations, advanced modelling, and effective communication, YOPP laid the groundwork for improved prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond.
A comprehensive approach to environmental prediction
What made YOPP unique was its holistic approach. The project combined observations, modelling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities to tackle the complexities of polar prediction. This comprehensive strategy led to several major achievements:
Enhanced Observational Capabilities: YOPP significantly expanded observational networks in the polar regions, providing high-quality data essential for improving weather and climate models.
Improved Modelling and Verification: By integrating advanced models and conducting rigorous verification, YOPP enhanced the accuracy of polar weather forecasts and climate predictions.
User Engagement and Communication: YOPP actively engaged with diverse user groups, from local communities to international stakeholders, ensuring that the predictions were not only accurate but also actionable.
Educational Initiatives: The project prioritized education and capacity building, empowering the next generation of polar scientists and decision-makers.
These efforts not only improved environmental prediction but also deepened our understanding of how changes in the Arctic and Antarctic impact global climate systems.
The power of collaboration: Building a global community
One of the most remarkable achievements of YOPP was its ability to unite a broad network of scientists, practitioners, and stakeholders across the globe. This unprecedented collaboration led to:
A wealth of scientific publications: YOPP contributed to a substantial body of scientific knowledge, enhancing our understanding of polar processes and their global implications.
Advanced forecasting models: The development of cutting-edge models improved prediction accuracy, particularly for extreme weather events influenced by polar conditions.
Increased public awareness: YOPP's effective communication strategies raised awareness about the importance of polar prediction and its role in understanding climate change.
The success of this collaborative approach demonstrated the power of international cooperation in tackling global challenges.
YOPP Final Summit: Celebrating achievements and shaping the future
In August 2022, the YOPP Final Summit was held in Montreal, Canada, bringing together 187 participants from 27 countries to showcase the findings and impacts of YOPP. Hosted by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the Summit served as a platform to celebrate YOPP’s successes and to discuss future directions for international polar research.
Key suggestions for future research included:
Coupled models with enhanced resolution: Focusing on atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean interactions to better represent critical phenomena such as ocean eddies.
Improved boundary layer processes: Addressing mixed-phase clouds, aerosols, and wave–ice–ocean interactions for more accurate forecasts.
Radiance assimilation and linkages to lower latitudes: Enhancing data assimilation over ice-covered areas and understanding polar-lower latitude interactions.
Predictability and observational representativeness: Exploring the limits of predictability and improving observational networks in remote polar environments.
Transdisciplinary approaches: Engaging with social scientists to better tailor forecasting services to user needs.
The discussions at the Final Summit emphasized that while substantial progress had been made, continued efforts are needed to expand research and tailor services to the evolving needs of diverse user groups.
In Antarctica, YOPP-SH boosted atmospheric predictability during seven targeted observing periods in the 2022 austral winter, emphasizing the need for international coordination, continued data denial experiments, and stronger links between research and operational forecasting.
Lessons learned and the legacy of YOPP
The success of PPP/YOPP can be attributed to several key factors:
Choosing the right topic at the right time: Polar prediction addressed urgent knowledge gaps and garnered global attention.
Clear and focused scope: YOPP maintained a clear focus on sea-ice and prediction, avoiding overextension.
Stakeholder engagement: Securing buy-in from stakeholders at all levels ensured sustained support and relevance.
Strong leadership and coordination: A dedicated Steering Group and a proactive International Coordination Office played crucial roles in guiding the project.
Strategic partnerships: Collaborations with initiatives like MOSAiC amplified YOPP’s impact through synergies and shared goals.
Sustainable funding and endorsement mechanisms: Establishing funding through WMO Trust Funds and securing support from major funding agencies enabled extensive research and operational activities.
These strategic elements not only ensured the success of YOPP but also laid a solid foundation for future international research programs.
Looking ahead: The future of polar prediction under PCAPS
Building on the legacy of PPP/YOPP, PCAPS takes polar prediction to the next level. With a stronger emphasis on services and applications, PCAPS will help address the rapidly evolving challenges posed by global warming in polar regions through improved environmental products and services.
PCAPS adopts a multidisciplinary approach, integrating social sciences to ensure a holistic understanding of user needs and decision-making processes. It also leverages cutting-edge technologies like Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to enhance prediction capabilities. Importantly, PCAPS will be key in WMO’s contribution to the next International Polar Year in 2032/2033, further solidifying the importance of polar prediction in a changing world.
Conclusion: A legacy of transformation
From humble beginnings in the late 2000s, polar prediction has evolved into a well-established field of science thanks to the visionary efforts of PPP/YOPP. This transformation has not only improved weather and climate forecasts but also enhanced our understanding of the interconnectedness of polar and global systems. As PCAPS continues this legacy, the future of polar prediction looks brighter than ever.
The journey from uncertainty to unprecedented insights serves as a testament to the power of international collaboration, strategic foresight, and unwavering dedication. As the final synthesis paper of YOPP is published, we are reminded that challenging scientific frontiers can be conquered when the world comes together.